Why the blog

This blog is written for CFOs, S151 Officers, CIOs, the wider C-Suite, weary SROs, and investors. Commissioned by the CEO of Dragon ERP—a leader in public sector audit—it tackles a pressing reality: the upheaval Industry 4.0 and AI are unleashing on organisations as they wrestle with the rising complexity of business transformation. Against this backdrop, too many programmes continue to be derailed by poor governance, opaque accountability, and repeated delivery failure—issues that not only drain financial and human capital but also erode trust in leadership and the very systems intended to modernise the enterprise.

Quantum Transformation

SAP programmes are not linear projects – they are quantum portfolio of work packages, releases, projects and programmes . They operate within a multi-matrix framework of people, process, technology, and data, where both known and unknown dependencies, risks and issues constantly collide.

It only takes a couple of poorly managed risks to interact for a “quantum effect” to occur: sudden energy release, disruptive waves, and the derailment of an entire programme. This is why traditional risk registers, red-amber-green heatmaps, and one-dimensional assurance approaches are no longer enough.

For CIOs and CFOs, navigating this omniverse is daunting. Programmes must contend with:

Operational risk – from integration breakdowns, poor data quality, and fragile delivery structures.
Reputational risk – when projects overrun, value erodes, or business disruption damages trust across the enterprise.
Innovation pressure – balancing the need to stabilise core processes while adopting AI, automation, and new Industry 4.0 digital business models.

In the wider SAP Omniverse — the new living mesh of enterprise processes, data fabrics, extended busienss networks, platforms legacy and new, Sovereign cloud, black box AI, and robotics — the failure metrics are stark. According to the World Economic Forum, $2 out of every $3 invested in technology is wasted, while research shows 70% of digital programmes and 95% of AI initiatives fail to deliver their intended value.

SAP is not immune; in fact, given its centrality to finance, supply chain, and operations, the stakes are even higher. This is why Quantum Risk Management is not optional — it is the discipline that keeps programmes anchored against the gravity of systemic failure.

From Linear to Quantum Risk

In quantum physics, waves form as atoms collide, releasing random bursts of energy. In SAP programmes, risks behave the same way. Small issues, left unchecked, can collide with hidden dependencies and trigger cascading disruptions.
(70% of SAP programmes stall just prior to UAT, and we know why)

Think of a poorly managed data migration risk colliding with poor UAT preparation and loose governance. Or revolving leadership change intersecting with over-complex design. The effect is exponential, not incremental.

The Dragon ERP Approach

In the era of Quantum Risk Management, we must treat risks as interdependent risk particles (Quarks) with the potential to amplify and cascade. The key is to anticipate the waveforms — to detect, absorb, and redirect disruptive energy before it destabilises the programme. We plot impact to the critical path with causal effect, often we find the critical path isn’t clear and our assurance service provides the level of clarity all stakeholders can consume.

See example below of the critical path from the review of a global SAP programme back in 2021.

That’s why our assurance service is designed to forensically identify risks and hidden dependencies, leaving no stone unturned.

By surfacing the unseen connections and fault lines, we help programme leaders contain volatility, neutralise threats before they collide, and restore stability to complex transformations. At Dragon ERP, we built Fire Power to meet this challenge head-on. It’s an industrialised SAP delivery model designed to reduce risk while accelerating innovation, its the engine room that enables the Dragon ERP Fire Fighter SAP Turnaround service.

Assurance Service

Our Assurance Service is built to give boards, CFOs, and CIOs absolute clarity on the health and trajectory of their SAP programmes.

We go beyond traditional audits to drive out risk by forensically surfacing hidden dependencies, weak controls, and blind spots before they collide into disruption. We provide assurance through three distinct lenses:

Strategic assurance (validating value cases, governance, and business alignment),
Delivery assurance (assessing risks, dependencies, and execution discipline),
Technical assurance (deep dives into architecture, integration, data, and controls).

To achieve this, we conduct targeted reviews including health checks, deep-dive diagnostics, design and architecture reviews, readiness assessments, and independent programme audits. By blending these, we deliver a 360° view of risk and resilience — not just identifying what is failing, but showing how to remediate and stabilise momentum.

It is a forensic, no-stone-unturned approach designed to keep SAP programmes on track and value realisation intact, deliver SAP change at speed while protecting the organisation from operational disruption and reputational harm.

The Quantum Failure, Survival Anchors and the Quark…

From decades of turnarounds and the collective intelligence we have identified a blended set of Failure Points and Survival Anchors pertinent to SAP programmes.

In the construct of an SAP programme, an anchor is a stabilising force — a principle, discipline, or control that holds the programme steady against disruption. When orchestrated together, these anchors create resilience, giving boards and leadership teams the grip they need to steer through complexity.

But when anchors are missing, weak, or misaligned, they stop acting as stabilisers and instead become points of fragility. And when core anchors, readiness anchors, and common failure points collide, they generate what we call a Quantum Risk. Like quarks in physics — particles that cannot exist in isolation but only in interaction — these risks amplify one another, releasing waves of disruption far greater than the sum of their parts. It is in these collisions that SAP programmes slip from control, often suddenly and irreversibly.

”Don’t wait for the wave anchor it”

The Quantum Anchors Framework

Embedded within our SAP governance model and assurance diagnostic, the framework integrates three perspectives:

Core Anchors: Board-level imperatives that stabilise the programme.
Readiness Anchors: Execution disciplines that ensure resilience.
Failure Points: Common quantum triggers that derail delivery.

Core Anchors (Board-Level Imperatives)

Stabilising principles that hold the programme steady.

Anchor in shifting value — re-baseline continuously.
Adaptive governance — small, decisive boards.
Orchestrate adoption, not just rollout.
Complexity is the enemy — simplify ruthlessly.
Deliver in pulses, not big bangs.
Own the core narrative.
Stabilise Finance & Supply Chain first.
Data as a living asset.
Talent as an adaptive mesh.
Build resilience into the fabric.
Deliver outcomes fast.
Survive leadership churn.

Readiness Anchors (Execution & Resilience Disciplines)

Disciplines that build momentum and operational strength.

Continuously model and stress-test scenarios.
Finance sign-off on TOM and controls early.
Define the Target Operating Vision.
Design the future service model.
Map and fix process pain points.
Rationalise automation.
Define an AI strategy.
Build an integration blueprint.
Model deployment options.
Define operational readiness.
Establish governance cadence.
Build a living data fabric.
Keep the benefits case alive.
Treat data migration, retention & archiving as inseparable.

Common Failure Points (The Quantum Triggers)

Our Diagnostic has over 170 standard SAP delivery and solution failure points

How the Anchors Work

When Core Anchors are strong and Readiness Anchors are embedded, programmes build resilience. But when these anchors weaken and interact with Failure Points, they generate a SAP Quantum Risk — the quark-level trigger of disruption.

Closing Thought - time for a coffee and a chat

Managing risk in SAP programmes is no longer about static registers. Risks collide, amplify, and cascade — and only a Quantum Risk Management approach can anticipate and absorb those collisions.

At Dragon ERP, our assurance service is engineered to expose hidden dependencies, connect failure points, and hard-wire survival anchors. We leave no stone unturned — because in the quantum field of SAP delivery, the smallest fracture can trigger the biggest wave.

If your SAP programme is drifting, stalling, or failing, now is the moment to act. Don’t wait for disruption to compound. Let’s talk — no buzzwords, no hard sell, just straight, practical advice over a coffee on how to stabilise and turn around your SAP portfolio.

About the Author

Alisdair Bach is a recognised SAP Programme Director and turnaround specialist — often called a “turnaround god” by clients for his ability to stabilise and recover the most complex and failing SAP programmes. With decades of experience across global private equity and public sector portfolios, Alisdair has led high-stakes SAP S/4HANA transformations, finance and supply chain turnarounds, and complex delivery rescues.

Through Dragon ERP, he brings board-level assurance, forensic diagnostics, and hands-on leadership to programmes that others have written off — combining empathy with no-nonsense execution to deliver results where failure once seemed inevitable.

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Alisdair

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Alisdair
alisdairbach@dragonerp.co.uk

The Era of Quantum Risk Management in SAP Programmes